Probability and Empirical Science Passage
XAT 2014 · Verbal Ability & Logical Reasoning · Medium · Reading Comprehension
Passage / data set
Analyze the following passage and provide appropriate answers for the questions that follow.
Ideas involving the theory probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we will still lack a satisfactory, consistence definition of probability; or, what amounts to much the same, we still lack a satisfactory axiomatic system for the calculus of probability. The relations between probability and experience are also still in need of clarification. In investigating this problem we shall discover what will at first seem an almost insuperable objection to my methodological views. For although probability statements play such a vitally important role in empirical science, they turn out to be in principle impervious to strict falsification. Yet this very stumbling block will become a touchstone upon which to test my theory, in order to find out what it is worth. Thus, we are confronted with two tasks. The first is to provide new foundations for the calculus of probability. This I shall try to do by developing the theory of probability as a frequency theory, along the lines followed by Richard von Mises, But without the use of what he calls the 'axiom of convergence' (or 'limit axiom') and with a somewhat weakened 'axiom of randomness' The second task is to elucidate the relations between probability and experience. This means solving what I call the problem of decidability statements. My hope is that the investigations will help to relieve the present unsatisfactory situation in which physicists make much use of probabilities without being able to say, consistently, what they mean by 'probability'.
Question 1 of 3
The statement, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification" implies that:
- A.
Probability of an event can always be checked with experience.
- B.
Probability of an event can only be gauged historically.
- C.
Probability is mathematical while experience is real.
- D.
Probability statements can become difficult to disprove without experience.
- E.
Probability is futuristic.
C
Explanation
The phrase highlights the contrast between probability (an abstract mathematical construct) and experience (real empirical observation), calling for clarification between the two.
Question 2 of 3
Author has talked about the two tasks in the above passage. Choose the best option from the following statements relevant to the tasks.
- A.
The first task is sufficient to become the touchstone for the author to test his theory.
- B.
The second task is sufficient to become the touchstone for the author to test his theory.
- C.
Either of the tasks is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
- D.
None of the tasks is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
- E.
Both the tasks would be important for the author to test his theory.
E
Explanation
The author outlines two tasks necessary to resolve the overarching problem and test his methodology; thus, both tasks are important.
Question 3 of 3
Which one of the following statements can be inferred from the passage?
- A.
Physics is the only subject than borrows form the theory
- B.
Physics is the only subject where the theory of probability is inaccurately applied.
- C.
The theory of probability may be inaccurately applied in other subjects.
- D.
Physics is highly mathematical.
- E.
Experience relates to physical objects only.
D
Explanation
The extensive role of probability theory, calculus, and axiomatic systems in physics supports the inference that physics is highly mathematical.
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