Pharma Company Drug Launch Caselet

Read the following case-let and answer the questions that follow:

Krishna Reddy was the head of a pharmaceutical company that was trying to develop a new product. Reddy, along with his friend Prabhakar Rao, assessed that such products had mixed success. Reddy and Rao realized that if a new product (a drug) was a success, it may result in sales of 100 crores but if it is unsuccessful, the sales may be only 20 crores. They further assessed that a new drug was likely to be successful 50% of times. Cost of launching the new drug was likely to be 50 crores.

How much profit can the company expect to earn if it launches the new drug(suppose there are no additional costs)?

Now, Reddy and Rao were in a quandary whether the company should go ahead and market the drug. They contacted Raj Adduri, a common friend for advice. Adduri was of the opinion that given the risky nature of the launch, it may be a better idea to test the market. Rao and Reddy realized test marketing would cost 10 crores. Adduri told them the previous test marketing results have been favourable 70% of times and success rate of products favourably tested was 80%. Further, when test marketing results were unfavourable; the products have been successful 30% of the times.

How much profit can the company expect to make if the product is launched after favourable test marketing results(assume there are no additional costs)?

What is the probability of product failure if Reddy and Rao decide to test market it?

If Rao and Reddy decide to launch the product despite unfavourable test marketing, how much profit can the company expect to earn?